Antibody testing

 Dear internet,

if a van pulled up in front my apartment and someone hopped out looking vaguely medical-like* and asked me, do you want a covid-19 test? I would probably say yes. Truthfully I’d like to know, and the less effort i’d have to expend to get that knowledge, the more likely I would be to do it.

But as it is, there are all these steps I’d have to follow to get a covid-19 antibody test. 

1. go online, make an online quest diagnostics account, answer some bs screening questions, pay 120 american dollars

2. find a test site, go there, get my blood drawn and expose myself/family to covid-19 from who ever is there.

3. wait and get my results online, maybe they are accurate, maybe not because the test might pick up any random coronavirus.

apparently if it’s positive it’s pretty accurate but a negative result could also be positive? i’m not a scientist or an epidemiologist or even someone who has a passable understanding of statistics. all i learned from stats and probability was:

  1. if you are good at statistics you can make up basically any stats and people like me will believe them because we never think to look at the p-number or p-factor or p-value. also there is a lot of really creatively misleading graph making out there. watch out.

2. while people do win at gambling, statistically it’s not gonna be you

So should I get an antibody test?

I *could* have had covid-19…but using the current stats it’s unlikely i have had it. So is it worth the effort? and we’re back to the van scenario. if it’s easy to get tested, sure, why not. if it’s hard to get tested and chances are, i probably haven’t had covid-19, then why bother.